FGVH IPO – What You Should Know Before Investing

Unlike the era of the 1990s, thanks largely to 1993′s Super Bull Run, you can’t expect to make easy money at IPOs tables nowadays. During the good old days, making 100% profits via IPO was a normal story. Heck, you would probably get laughed at for trumpeting 100% profits.

Even if you were very “Sui” (unlucky) for failure in getting even 1-lot (it was 1,000 shares then) in your IPO application, you still can make very handsome profits during the listing day. The fact that you just needed to call your remisier to (blindly) buy at whatever ask-price displayed on the screen and yet makes money shows how bullish the market was back then.

Today, you should make offering of “appreciation” to God, with fire-crackers and lion dance thrown in, if you can make even 10% profits on the listing day. OK, I was exaggerating but the fact that 3 out of 5 companies listed this year have lost between 4% and 20% of their market capitalisation value as at end-May, speaks volume about the risks of putting your hard-earned money in the local stock market during current challenging time. When everyone thought they could make a killing with Facebook Inc.’s (Nasdaq: FB, stock) IPO, the stock lost a whopping 29% from its IPO price of $38 a share as of yesterday’s closing.



Come June 28, Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGVH) will be listed on the Bursa Malaysia (Malaysia Stock Exchange) with a market capitalization of RM16.599 billion based on IPO indicator price of RM4.55 a share. There would be a mind-boggling 3,648 million shares floating in the market.

Actually FGVH is another animal and should perform differently compares to Facebook considering it is the third largest (by landbank) listed palm oil operator globally, if not for the fact that the company is tainted with truckloads of political elements attached to it.

For a start, the whole exercise of FGVH listing was rushed in as if a plague would be wiping out human civilization post-June listing date. When Isa Abdul, a person who was found guilty of money politic (a flowerish word for corruption) by its own party, UMNO, was made Felda Chairman, even though he wasn’t a KPF (Koperasi Permodalan Felda) member hence his membership was found to be “illegal” by the Malaysian Cooperative Societies Commission (MCCC), you can smell troubles miles away. It was simply an exercise to cash out from Felda by milking the ignorant 112,000 settlers’ tits to dry, before the coming general election.



Based on 1,208.9 million shares from shareholders and 980 million new shares offered to the public, the IPO will raise a combination of RM10 billion (based on retail offer price of RM4.55 a share). That’s a lot of money and anyone would not think twice about cashing out, not to mention such amount of money can buy hundreds of thousands of votes.

However there’s something fishy about the IPO exercise when KPF, which owns 51% of Felda Holdings Berhad currently had been left out in the exercise. It was a valid argument from opposition as to the reason of setting up a “mysterious trust fund” to channel 20% of dividend from the IPO. The fact that the trust fund wasn’t mentioned in the IPO prospectus could spook investors further.

Maybe that was the reason why some state governments was made to provide irrevokable undertakings to subscribe to FGVH’s IPO shares, should there be no takers. It’s both strange and weird that a 51% shareholder (KPF) which represent the 112,000 settlers are not represented in FGVH post-listing. Heck, technically, KPF does not even own anything in crown jewel Felda Holdings Berhad as the biggest shareholder would then be FGVH with its 40% stake. It seems the IPO was designed to sell off KPF’s 51% stake and park the RM10 billion under FGVH which includes the mysterious trust fund.



State governments involved in irrevokable undertakings:

• Pahang State Government – 5% (182,407,575 shares)
• Sabah State Government – 5% (182,407,575 shares)
• Terengganu State Government – 0.28% (10,000,000 shares)
• Negeri Sembilan State Government – 0.16% (5,837,070 shares)
• Perak State Government – 0.40% (14,957,421 shares)

Post-listing, Felda settlers would only own 2.5% of the enlarged share capital, and without KPF representative, it is as good as a toothless tiger, provided the settlers could raise money to subscribe to the pink (or whatever colour) forms in the first place. Judging from how Felda settlers jumping in joy after received RM15,000 each in so-called windfall as if the country has just crowned the FIFA World Cup Champion, most probably they thought they need not pay a single sen to gain shares via pink form.

The settlers may not realize it but the moment FGVH is listed, they have practically no say whatsoever as their lands are leased to FGVH for 99 years (lease begin from 1 Jan 2012).
Sure, based on the terms of the lease, FGVH must pay Felda RM248.5 million (or RM698.24 / hectare) annually together with a fixed percentage of FGVH’s plantations operating profit.

But when you compare this to Boustead REIT lease of RM3,500 / hectare, the settlers were made suckers for such a cheap leasing rate. Now you understand why Isa Samad was chosen as the person to rip off Felda Holdings. When you can underpay the idiots by a whopping 400% and yet they applause what you did, it simply means you’re as smart as Albert Einstein, if not better (*grin*). Based on 91,203,787.5 or 2.5% shares to be shared equally amongst 112,000 settlers, each of them will be getting 814 shares – great deal.




On paper, Felda Holdings via FGVH is a cash-cow waiting to be milked, with cool revenue and profits. However as a potential investor, you should realize that about 53% of its plantations is old (over 21 years) and needs to be replanted, which means high cost in expenditure. Using Greenfield development cost as benchmark whereby a hectare requires about RM15,000 to replant, 53% of 355,864 hectares will translates into RM2.8 billion on replanting cost alone, spread over 5-years.

And do we have to tell you that crude palm oil prices have crashed 18% since it hit a 13 month high in April this year due to declining demand from China and India? Yes, it seems China and India’s economies are slowing down and that spells trouble for palm oil players who depends heavily on these two giants. The Eurozone debt crisis doesn’t help the situation either. Already the crude palm oil prices is expected to tumble to RM2,700 per ton in 2012, if we’re lucky.

There’s also competitor next door – Indonesia – who just adjusted their palm oil export tax structure which gave Indonesia refiners bargaining power when procuring crude palm oil as well as lower export tax (yeah, they play dirty so what!).



Plantation companies in Malaysia also rely heavily on foreign workers, primarily from Indonesia. With this controversial FGVH IPO, you also learn the reason why foreigners are the kingmakers in this country so much so that the present government was caught rushing in granting them citizenship – not only these foreigners can be used to deliver crucial votes in the coming general election but also as cheap labour working at plantation sector. Can you imagine what will happen to the stock price if 84% of FGVH’s current foreign estate workers totalling 25,000 were to take to the street asking for better pay and benefits?

Now, should you try your luck on this IPO? Well, if you look at the players interested in the stock especially people like Chua Ma Yu, you may want to jump in as it is no-brainer. However you have no idea how fast this legendary investor can unload his chunk of shares on the listing day.

FGVH will have huge floating shares so you should get ready for huge selling, just like what happened to Facebook, but in FGVH case it’s primarily due to political concern. If you’re not comfortable with the way FGVH is being listed, don’t bother because chances are you could get the stock cheaper post-listing, the same way Facebook stock price is suffering now.



Investors also do not fancy hanky-panky, what more with this hidden 20% trust fund. If the government chose to play God by bulldozing majority shareholder KPF (51%) to extinction, what warranty do new investors have that they would not be short changed considering they’re just minor shareholders?

Many fund managers are bullish with Buy (silly, how can they recommend Sell instead?) and suggested target price of RM5.65, a price earning of 16 times Financial Year 2012′s EPS of 35.3 sen. Hence, just like Facebook, you can still make some pocket money, provided you can dispose it fast enough on the day of listing.

Don’t fall in love with the company. Sell it to realize the profit and wait for the major sell-off. There’s no harm waiting for the price to fluctuate and buy again at below IPO price, even though you’re a long term investor. If Najib administration needs more money for the general election, chances are the selling pressure will intensify further. And if this is the last rip-off from the present government to leave coffer dry, you’ve even more reason to follow the market maker and sell like crazy.

Anwar’s Acquittal – What Are The Hidden Messages?

By now everybody in Planet Earth knows de-facto opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, has been acquitted on a charge of sodomising his former aide Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan in 2008. The acquittal surprises many people – from opposition parties, Najib administration, former premier Mahathir and even Anwar himself. But was Anwar really surprised with the verdict? For a person who was about 90% to be sent behind bars for the second time for the same sodomy charge, Anwar doesn’t seems to be the happiest person in comparison to his wife, daughters, the thousands cheering crowds and his buddies from the opposition parties.



For a start, five days before the verdict, the once fierce and deadly keris-waver Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein (cousin of PM Najib Razak) surprised many cats with his super soft approach by allowing 9-Jan rally with a lame condition that the “901-Free Anwar Campaign” organizer must guarantee a peaceful rally. Despite hundreds of reports lodged nationwide against the rally, the Home Minister must either be drunk or had switched his brains with Princess Diana for allowing such “illegal rally”.

Then, the IGP (Inspector-General of Police) was super proactive by instructing the city police chief to meet the organisers over the rally. The second sweet-cherry surprise came when the police granted permit to the “901 Free Anwar” rally when the same police force preferred a confrontation against any rally in the past, the latest being barely six months ago during Bersih 2.0 rally. Of course there was negligible hiccup such as the silly 10-condition string attached after the permit was granted, of which the rally participants didn’t give a hoot to, and the police didn’t enforce it seriously at the court house nonetheless.



Compared to Bersih 2.0′s “Walk for Democracy” rally where more than a dozen FRU trucks and about 300 FRU and other police personnel were stationed near Masjid Jamek alone, one must be wondering if all these heavyweight terminators are on vacation this time, judging from the lack of FRU presence during the “901 Free Anwar” rally. This was a surprise indeed as the rally was allegedly supposed to garner a bigger crowd of 100,000 participants.

The judge in delivering his short two minute acquittal verdict gave a simple explanation that the DNA sample could have been contaminated and hence he could not rely on the controversial DNA evidence submitted by the prosecution, before disappearing into his chamber as if he was constipated.

This despite the fact that Justice Mohamad Zabidin Mohd Diah ruled back in May 2011 that Mohd Saiful was a “credible and truthful witness”. The furious Anwar and his legal team applied to replace the judge as he prejudged before the trial concluded. So, it was surprise that only now the same judge realized there was no case after all.



And how did those home-made explosives which triggered three small explosions and injured five persons planted in three police cones, considering the police was monitoring the area intensively? Unless Anwar supporters fancy blowing up themselves out of fun, these home-made explosives could be planted to create chaos should the judge delivers a conviction verdict. It would then be used as justification to deny any future rally because it would be proven that the peaceful rally can become deadly. Nah, the Perkasa group was too chicken to do such thing, no? But the judge was ready to acquit Anwar so what give?



The answer: the acquittal verdict could be a last-minute decision. To get together the jigsaw puzzle, let’s revisit the past articles. This article “Resign Or Snap Election For Najib, Here’re The Reasons“, talks about the power struggle within UMNO between PM Najib and the 3M-Team led by his mentor Mahathir. Of course Najib didn’t resign nor call for a snap election because he found a temporary workaround – balancing the power by inviting a third force into the equation hence the article “Romance Of Three Kingdoms – Najib, Mahathir & Anwar“.

Auntie Rosy seems to have taken some notes in “All Is Not Lost, If Auntie Rosy Dare To Turn The Table” article, and managed to whacked hubby Najib out of his slumberland with her precious Birkin bag. Najib in turns have done some damage controls. Former Selangor state Chief Minister Khir Toyo has been sacrificed, not that he was an innocent angel in the first place. Najib also has stopped parroting Perkasa’s Ibrahim Ali’s racial remarks, not to mention being super nice to the Chinese community and spend more time talking economy instead of checking Anwar’s daily sex life.

 

MACC was instructed to spend time on Shahrizat, an UMNO warlord aligned with deputy PM Muhyiddin over the RM250 million CowGate Scandal. Instead of an apology over Bersih 2.0 mishandling, Hishammuddin (reluctantly) showed his soft-spot in the latest “901 Free Anwar” rally. That would leave a “Cabinet Reshuffle” the only pending task before the actual snap election. Nevertheless Cabinet reshuffle is not an easy task considering it would potentially remove the warlords’ cheese. For the same reason, Mahathir wasn’t really fancy the idea of fielding “winnable candidates” drummed by Najib. Nevertheless, it was a great job by Auntie Rosy.

Of course, Najib was having orgasm when he thought he had given Mahathir a run for his money by flexing his muscles in making Shahrizat furious and mumbling as if she was infected by mad-cow disease in “Best Democracy In The World – Najib Impressed Obama” article. Mahathir wasn’t amused with Najib’s antic at all but he was equally disgusted with Shahrizat’s arrogance and denial syndrome in the scandal which went to the extent of naughty jokes about the women’s RM26,000 bra. Mahathir recognizes the need to neutralize any scandal which could potentially invite Middle East style uprising, not to mention the coming election, hence his worry in the article “Mahathir And His 3M Team Are Worried And Here’s Why“.



Sensing Najib was dragging his feat in Anwar’s sodomy trial, Mahathir tried to stage a comeback by putting his hands in everything from political to economic issues. This put Anwar in high alert as in “Anwar And Opposition Are Worried – Mahathir Is Back” article. But it wasn’t only Anwar who was worried about Mahathir’s sudden active manoeuvres. Najib was equally worried that the old master tactician started gathering supporters openly especially from UMNO warlords. It seems there was silent power struggle as well as alliance talks among three persons right to the moment before the judge announces the verdict – Najib, Anwar and Mahathir.

Maybe that explains the flip-flop about the police’s rally permit which demanded the sudden 10 conditions after granted it, not to mention the unexpected explosions plus the rush by the (reluctant) judge in delivering the verdict. Maybe someone very powerful inside UMNO tried to create havoc hoping to use it as weapon to gain absolute power and force PM Najib to resign. One has to remember Najib is still surrounded by many warlords who may be dropped as candidates in the next general election. With a last-minute secret alliance brokered between Anwar and Najib, Mahathir’s power is clipped and this provides a balance of power amongst them.

 

So no, the judiciary pillar is not an inch any better than before the acquittal as what many perceived. It was a bonus from Najib’s manoeuvre to tilt the power in his favour from Mahathir. By temporary sending Mahathir to the drawing board once again, Najib can claim judiciary independence under his administration and score some points. Who said Najib is stupid?

Moving forward, Najib should reshuffle his cabinet before calling for the polls if he insists on fielding winnable candidates. Going by the calendar, he should be calling the polls in Mar-2012 if he thinks a cabinet reshuffle is too risky. Otherwise, he would do the reshuffle in Mar-2012 and call the polls in June-2012. One more thing – Shahrizat may be put in cold storage as her cows are inviting unfavourable feedback from the rural folks.  

BANGSA IBAN ( IBANS ) in the Federal Civil Services in MALAYSIA

 

KUCHING: There are only 13,882 Ibans and 7,108 Bidayuhs in the Federal departments and ministries out of 601,862 Malays and 57,578 Chinese. 
These figures were released by the Prime Minister Department in reply to a question raised by the MP for Bandar Kuching Chong Chieng Jen. 

During the recent sitting of Parliament, Chong had asked the Prime Minister to give the total number of civil servants in all the ministries and the racial breakdown of Malays, Chinese, Iban and Bidayuh up to 31 March 2011. 

“Based on the reply given to my question in Parliament there is a big discrepancy between the Malays and Chinese, Iban and Bidayuh civil servants,” he said. 

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak should improve the racial composition of the civil service if he is really serious about implementing 1Malaysia concept. 

“He has been shouting about the concept for the past two years, and yet the racial composition between the Malays and Chinese in government departments has not improved,” said Chong who is Sarawak DASP Secretary and state assemblyman for Kota Sentosa. 

Quoting the reply, Chong who is the MP for Bandar Kuching said: “In the Prime Minister Department, there are about 31,297 Malays to 797 Chinese or 39.27:1. This is about two percent. 

“And there are only 412 Ibans and 279 Bidayuhs in the PM department. 

“The worst is in the Rural and Regional Development Ministry where there are 2,442 Malays to 18 Chinese or 135.67:1 or less than one percent of the Chinese, and 26 Ibans and 18 Bidayuhs,” he said. 

Among the ministries mentioned by Chong included the following: 

~ Ministry of Youth and Sports 2,980 Malays to 32 Chinese, 27 Ibans and 21 Bidayuhs; 

  

~ Ministry of Home Affairs 40,263 (Malays) to 614 (Chinese), 823 (Iban) and 476 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Works 6,221 (Malays) to 156 (Chinese), 21(Iban), and 9(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Health 130,106 (Malays) to 9,500 (Chinese), 3,657(Iban) and 1,894 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Finance 15,835 (Malays) to 508 (Chinese), 247 (Iban) and 155 (Bidayuh); 

  

~ Ministry of Foreign Affairs 1,215 (Malays) to 53 (Chinese), 7 (Iban) and 6 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Education 273,791(Malays) to 43,669 (Chinese), 7,379 (Iban) and 3,434 (Bidayuh); 

  

~ Ministry of Tourism 455 (Malays) to 19 (Chinese), 6 (Iban) and 6 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Women, Family and Community Development 5,461 (Malays) to 75 (Chinese), 75 (Iban) and 42(Bidayuh);

~ Ministry of Information, Communication and Culture 8,839 (Malays) to 402 (Chinese), 231 (Iban) and 134 (Bidayuh);

~ Ministry of Higher Education 15,012 (Malays) to 334 (Chinese), 84(Iban) and 54 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Transport 9,028 (Malays)  to 205 (Chinese), 198(Iban) and 168 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Defence 12,078 (Malays) to 113 (Chinese), 123 (Iban) and 76 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Housing and Local Government 11,363 (Malays)  to 173 (Chinese), 201 (Iban) and 88 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of International Trade and Industry 785(Malays) to 29 (Chinese), 7(Iban) and 4(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Domestic Trade, and Consumer Affairs 2,645 (Malays) to 47 (Chinese), 43 (Iban) and 23 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-based Industry 8,826 (Malays) to 206 (Chinese), 54 (Iban) and 45(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Entrepreneur and Commodity 195 (Malays) to 5 (Chinese), 0 (Iban) and 0 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 3,596 (Malays) to 240 (Chinese), 48 (Iban) and 48(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 11,849 (Malays) to 227(Chinese), 108(Iban) and 67(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Human Resources 6,457 (Malays) to 129(Chinese), 98 (Iban) and 60 (Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water 553 (Malays) to 19(Chinese), 5(Iban) and 0(Bidayuh);  

 

~ Ministry of Federal Territory 570 (Malays) to 8 (Chinese), 2(Iban) and 1(Bidayuh). 

Total 601,862 (Malays) to 57,578 (Chinese), 13,882(Ibans) and 7,108(Bidayuh). 
Pointing out that these are some of the examples, Chong said: “This clearly shows such unbalanced racial composition in the various government departments and ministries. 

“It also clearly shows Najib’s 1Malaysia slogan is a mere slogan. There is no concrete policy to implement the concept,” he said, adding that he had been shouting about it for the last two years. 

He said: “There is no improvement in the racial composition based on the racial breakdown in the government departments. Even in his department it is worse than the average. 

“It shows that Najib is not the prime minister for all, but the prime minister for one single race,” Chong said. 

It should be interesting to know how many Ibans and Bidayuhs in the State Civil Service. Can any Dayak state assemblyman ask such a question?